The Ruler(s) of My Life

(Reflection of Jeff Liando at St John's Presbyterian Church service 19 Oct 2014 , Wellington New Zealand) Bible Readings: Isaiah 45:1-7 and Matthew 22:15-22 Good morning, selamat pagi. If I were a Jew and one of the Pharisees, I would have asked again, why pay taxes to non Jewish ruler? Why Cyrus, a non Jew, is anointed by the God of Israel? In reality, I’m an Indonesian and never ask IRD why they tax me or my ministers why I am an Elder now. From the story about paying taxes to Caesar, I've found the most common interpretation of the story, that Jesus is trying to distinguish between duties to Caesar’s and God’s Kingdom, between government and church. I understand that tax is a tool used by government to raise money in order to perform their jobs in making a better country. However, I know that some conservative views may think that a better country can be established by us privately, with less tax and government intervention. Is God a conservative? More than the issue of secular versus church or progressive versus conservative, I see three personal points that may face me from this topic. • Firstly, the ruler of my life. Who or what has power over me? God or something else? • Secondly, the options of worldly and godly attitudes. Towards family, church, career, hobbies, relationship, colleagues, community, and so on. • Thirdly, the solution of pursuing both worldly and godly matters simultaneously. Does it work? Is it OK? As Jesus asked whose head in the coin, I ask myself, who is ruling my life? Do I have more than one dominant power over me? If there are two rulers, then it’s not easy to perform my duties to both sides at the same time. There’s a double tax agreement between New Zealand and Indonesia so, fortunately, I don’t have to pay taxes twice for one income. A few months ago, when I worked for both sides at the same time I paid my taxes separately for each income. Answering to my own question, I always justify with a classic answer that the rulers of my life are God, family and career. Somehow, I feel they are manageable and can be treated separately. Nevertheless, when it comes to choosing the worldly and godly attitudes, everything seems problematic and not consistent. There are nights with prayers with the children, there are nights without prayers. There are workdays started with prayers, and there are not. Sometimes I confess my mistakes, sometimes I defend and even hide them. I could love my enemies but it’s easier to love my friends. There are chances I use to forgive but sometimes I use them to get revenge. I go to church most Sundays. However, there are Sundays I play badminton with my friends. I consider all missing godly attitudes are just my ignorance, but I do realise they show my disobedience to God. When I see the reality I find that the previous problematics are actually justifiable and understandable. Perhaps it’s like the concept of tax return on charity when we can shift our unintended duty to good intention. God wants me to believe only He provides all my needs, but I say my work provides my needs and God bless me through my job. God wants me to only serve Him, but I say I can pursue my career, seek wealth, take care of my family and serve God at the same time. It seems the worldly and godly matters are not in the same scope. If one is in the scope, the other should be out of scope. An Australian client cannot be invoiced with GST for a service provided by a New Zealand company. If I belong to God, can I perform my worldly duty to Him? Or, if I’m at a professional symposium, can I discuss something godly with my colleagues? If I’m holidaying in Queenstown on Sunday should I schedule to go to church first or just enjoy my holiday all day? I think my initial classic answer of God, family and career becomes obsolete. My answer now is that the ruler of my life is only God Almighty. With this, I can feel His power given to me. I can feel I am His instrument. Like Cyrus the Great, a King of Persian, conquered Mesopotamia and freed the Jews from Babylon to return to Jerusalem. I will have a full control of my life. I believe God will increase everything I have. I will experience His salvation through Jesus Christ. I will move on, forward and upward, stage by stage without interruption. In any given day each of my steps will be full of God’s love, peace, grace and hope. Do you think God Almighty is the one and only ruler of our life? Tuhan berkati. Amin.

Posted on: 19 October 2014 | 2:06 pm

When should I start writing again?

The question for a blogger lately: "When should I start writing again?"Busy at work, joy with family, too much time on Facebook and any other things more amusing and interesting than blogging are the key factors that make me stop updating my blog.Hmmm...

Posted on: 6 November 2009 | 4:05 am

Pemilu dan Teori Ekonomi Politik

Pemilu (Pemilihan Umum) adalah aksi dimana rakyat memilih secara politis. Rakyat yang tidak (mau) memilih atau golput tidak akan masuk dalam pembahasan saya, karena mungkin mereka tidak mau terlibat secara politis. Hal ini berarti memberikan batasan (limitation) terhadap pembahasan saya, dan bisa dikategorikan sebagai deviasi atau "error". Mungkin ada batasan lainnya seperti pilihan random dan pilihan yang dipengaruhi. Saya mulai pembahasan ini dengan konsep choice atau pilihan. Konsep ini popular dan mendasar dalam teori ekonomi yang lebih dikenal dengan rational choice theory, yang bisa diartikan bahwa seseorang dengan mempertimbangkan biaya dan manfaat terhadap suatu barang akhirnya memutuskan untuk memilih barang tersebut. Berarti secara rasional individu itu memilih barang dengan biaya semurah mungkin dengan manfaat sebesar mungkin. Namun kemudian biaya tidak menjadi masalah karena partai politik (parpol) dan calon legislatif (caleg) dalam Pemilu bukan barang yang mengeluarkan biaya. Biaya yang mungkin dikeluarkan boleh jadi berbentuk biaya kesempatan (opportunity cost) karena kehilangan manfaat, aspirasi atau tujuan pribadi yang tidak tercapai. Dan juga biaya eksternal (externality) karena kemenangan mayoritas akan merugikan kekalahan minoritas dalam implementasi kebijakan. Biaya kesempatan yang mungkin terjadi adalah realita dimana seseorang memiliki preferensi terhadap 2 atau lebih parpol yang akhirnya harus memilih satu parpol agar suara menjadi valid. Perlu diingat bahwa individu ini berupaya untuk menentukan pilihan dan tidak menjadi golput sementara manfaat yang ingin dicapai (desire) tersalurkan dalam lebih satu parpol. Dalam kerangka politik, individu pastinya akan berkelompok karena kenyataannya setelah diumukan KPU bahwa Daftar Pemilih Tetap (DPT) terdapat 170 juta lebih individu yang akan memilih hanya 38 parpol. Berarti disini kita mengarah ke sikap dan perilaku pemilihan publik bukan individu lagi. Yang menarik dari sikap dan perilaku ini adalah kepentingan individu (dari desire individu) berkembang menjadi kepentingan umum (publik). Berarti kepentingan individu akan secara kolektif menjadi suatu agregasi kepentingan individu. Contoh simpel agregasi dalam ekonomi adalah pendapatan pribadi yang dikumpulkan menjadi pendapatan domestik bruto (GDP). Parpol apapun yang menang dalam Pemilu akan secara potensial menyebabkan biaya eksternal yang besar dari parpol yang tidak menang karena keputusan tersebut memerlukan persetujuan super mayoritas individu atau publik dalam suatu sistem. Contohnya yang jelas dalam Pemilu adalah salah satu parpol akan mendapat suara tertinggi dan mayoritas, sementara parpol yang lain akan mendapat suara lebih rendah. Walaupun kita asumsikan terjadi koalisi, parpol-parpol yang berada dalam koalisi yang kalah atau kurang dari mayoritas akan mengeluarkan biaya eksternal. Apa sih biaya eksternal itu? Biaya eksternal yaitu biaya yang dikeluarkan oleh parpol/koalisi yang kalah karena kerugian yang diperoleh akibat dari keputusan atau kebijakan parpol yang menang yang nantinya akan merugikan parpol/koalisi yang kalah. Teori ini disimpulkan dari teori pilihan publik, Buchanan dan Tullock dalam bukunya The Calculus of Consent: Logical Foundations of Constitutional Democracy (1962). Kalau diartikan diartikan secara kasar dalam Bahasa Indonesia adalah Kalkulus Persetujuan: Dasar Logis dari Demokrasi yang Konstitusional. Haha... untuk yang suka Kalkulus waktu SMA/kuliah dan yang suka politik praktis waktu kuliah tentu akan tertarik untuk membeli buku ini. Sekarang kita ambil salah satu contoh kebijakan khayalan, misalnya kebijakan umur pensiun 65 tahun dan dwi kewarganegaraan. Setelah Pemilu, parpol/koalisi yang menang menjebolkan UU tentang kebijakan tersebut. Tentunya yang rugi adalah parpol/koalisi yang kalah yang tidak menjebolkan UU tersebut karena memang bukan menjadi suatu aspirasi atau inspirasi yang ditawarkan kepada para pemilihnya. Walaupun demikian, proses demokrasi dalam Pemilu dapat dikatakan berjalan lancar, cuma ada aspirasi yang tercapai dan tidak tercapai. Sekarang muncul masalah aspirasi dan desire yang ingin dicapai. Tema pendukung pemilu kali ini kebetulan salah satunya adalah "Kenalilah dan pilih caleg yang peduli pada aspirasi dan inspirasi rakyat." Saya mencoba mengambil konsep keuangan untuk membahas hal ini, yaitu Hipotesis Efesiensi Pasar (Market Efficiency Hypothesis). Konsep ini bisa diartikan bahwa harga di pasar keuangan ditentukan dengan informasi yang diterima oleh pelaku pasar terhadap suatu produk. Jadi, kalau informasi yang diperoleh jelek dan tidak sesuai, maka produk tersebut cenderung memiliki harga yang rendah, dan begitu juga sebaliknya. Mudah saja diartikan apabila dikaitkan dengan Pemilu, yaitu bahwa kalau informasi yang diperoleh terhadap suatu parpol dan calegnya tidak sesuai dengan aspirasi dan inspirasi calon pemilih, maka parpol dan caleg tersebut tidak akan dipilih. Bagaimana Pemilu bisa menjadi efisien? Cara satu-satunya adalah seorang calon pemilih perlu mengorek informasi sebanyak mungkin terhadap visi, tujuan, agenda dan profil caleg suatu parpol sedemikian rupa sehingga calon pemilih dapat mencocokan dengan aspirasi, inspirasi, manfaat dan desire-nya. Hal ini dapat diperoleh melalui kampanye-kampanye yang dilakukan atau secara suka rela melakukan observasi terhadap suatu parpol dari media massa atau media internet. Kalau akhirnya pilihannya menjadi suatu pilihan yang acak (random) atau yang tidak sesuai dengan aspirasi dan inspirasi, maka ada kemungkinan Pemilu menjadi tidak efisien dan boleh jadi menghasilkan suatu agenda baru yang mengambang, tidak aspiratif dan inspirasional. Apabila kita formulasikan sebagai berikut: Y = f(X1, X2,... X3), dimana y = pilihan parpol dan x = variable parpol yang diobservasi (misalnya Profil Caleg, Asas, Visi, Tujuan, informasi lainnya), maka secara jelas dan logis pilihan individu dapat ditentukan sesuai dengan aspirasi, inspirasi, manfaat dan desire. Ada kemungkinan fungsi ini menjadi Ya = f(Xa1, Xa2,... Xa3) dan Yb = f(Xb1, Xb2,... Xb3), apabila pilihan menjadi lebih dari satu atau multi-variasi, hmmmm... ;-). Mohon datang ke link ini untuk melihat Daftar Caleg Tetap >>> Untuk klasifikasi Asas berdasarkan website: IndonesiaMemilih.com, Asas parpol yang mengikuti pemilu dapat dibagi sebagai berikut: Pancasila (parpol no. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12, 13, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 25, 28, 30, 31, 32, 33, 41) Islam (parpol no. 8, 18, 24, 27, 29, 34, 42) Keadilan, Demokrasi, Kemajemukan, Pancasila (parpol no. 10) UUD 45 & Pancasila (parpol no. 14, 43, 44) Marhaenisme (parpol no. 15) Nasionalisme (parpol no. 26) Salam Pemilu 2009 dan Selamat Memilih.

Posted on: 5 December 2008 | 2:21 am

I didn't see any troubles in the current financial turmoil

In share trading we trade the physical shares while in futures trading we trade the contracts of the physical shares. That's why in share trading without short selling, investors are always exposed to a 'naked position' of 'buy' as the initial action is always 'buy' from the brokers in the exchange. Meanwhile in futures trading, investors can sell the contracts first and then buy them after, directly from the exchange. I didn't see any troubles in the current financial turmoil with a successful futures trading. When Lehman Brothers filed bankruptcy on Monday 15 Sep 08 and the US market was down by 4.4% on that day, Australia and New Zealand were still in the evening. Next day, Tuesday morning, I set an open position of selling 50 contracts of ASX SPI 200 Dec Futures at 4,738 expecting a very big catch of a lifetime. (1 contract is valued at $25 per point, so with 50 contracts, if the ASX SPI 200 Dec decreases 1 point, I can profit $1,250.) I waited for 2 days. I didn't trade on Wednesday cos I was doing something else. I knew that bad news was continuously spread by 'fellow media'. On Thursday 18 Sep 08 the price of ASX SPI 200 Dec Futures dropped to 4,616. So, by 122 points I reaped $152,500 profit. ASX SPI 200 Futures has been my favourite toy traded in Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE). The price is tight to the index of ASX SPI 200, index of 200 Australian shares. A day rally in the US market (evening in Aus) frequently influences the next trading day in the Australian market. Sometimes the profit can only be taken before midday though. ASX SPI 200 Futures trading opens 9.50 am. Current financial turmoil might not be an issue for some people. Yeah right...

Posted on: 18 September 2008 | 5:02 am

Cover Your Breasts

Visitwww.CoverYourBreasts.com

Posted on: 19 August 2008 | 4:48 pm

Pemilu Indonesia 2009 di Selandia Baru

Kunjungi www.pemilu-nz.orgAssallamu'alaikum wr.wb dan Salam SejahteraKesejahteraan, kenyamanan, keamanan dan keteraturan kehidupan kita di Selandia Baru saat ini bukan berarti kita tidak lagi memikirkan masa depan bangsa dan negara kita Indonesia. Bagaimanapun juga, sebagai warga negara Republik Indonesia kita masih tetap memiliki tanggung jawab, atau paling tidak kesadaran, terhadap perubahan ke arah yang lebih baik.Mimpi dan harapan terhadap suatu perubahan yang optimal, atau paling tidak yang kita rasakan terbaik, bagi bangsa dan negara Indonesia tergantung dari satu suara pribadi yang diberikan dalam Pemilu 2009 mendatang. Satu suara pun, walaupun berasal dari ujung dunia seperti Selandia Baru, sangat berarti. Dalam proses demokrasi yang sempurna, suara anda akan berujung pada beberapa kekuatan politik yang pada akhirnya akan berkoalisi untuk menyamakan persepsi pada suatu agenda perubahan. Pada akhirnya, satu suara anda itulah yang menentukan agenda perubahan yang mengubah mimpi jadi kenyataan, harapan jadi anugerah.Pemilu 2009 akan diselenggarakan pada hari Kamis, 9 April 2009. Pemilu 2009 di Selandia Baru dilaksanakan dengan dua jenis penyelenggaraan:(1) Pemungutan suara di Tempat Pemungutan Suara (TPS), dan(2) Pemungutan suara yang dikirim melalui Pos (NZ Post).Pemungutan suara di TPS berlaku di kota Wellington dan pemungutan suara melalui pos berlaku di kota selain Wellington.Jumlah suara yang sah dalam Pemilu 2009 di Selbar akan dimasukkan dalam wilayah pemilihan DKI Jakarta-II.Panitia Pemilihan Luar Negeri Selandia Baru (PPLN Selbar) dibentuk 2 Agustus 2008. Hubungan PPLN Selbar dengan KPU Pusat adalah melalui Kelompok Kerja Pemilu di Departemen Luar Negeri.PPLN Selbar ---> KBRI Wellington ---> Pokja Pemilu Deplu ---> KPU PusatPada saat PPLN Selbar dibentuk 2 Agustus 08, isu pertama dan utama yang sangat diperhatikan adalah pemutakhiran data pemilih. Daftar Pemilih Sementara (DPS) akan diperbaiki menjadi Daftar Pemilih Sementara Hasil Perbaikan (DPSHP). Kemudian DPSHP akan diperbaiki kembali menjadi Daftar Pemilih Sementara Hasil Perbaikan Akhir (DPSHPA). Berdasarkan DPSHPA akan disusun Daftar Pemilih Tetap (DPT). Lihat Tahapan Pemilu untuk jadualnya.DPS -> diumumkan -> tanggapan/masukan dari masyarakatPerbaikanDPSHP -> diumumkan -> tanggapan/masukan dari masyarakatPerbaikan AkhirDPSHPA -> dikirim ke KPUPenyusunan DPTDPT -> dikirim ke KPUDilengkapi dengan Daftar Pemilih TambahanPeriksa apakah nama anda sudah tertera pada Daftar Pemilih Sementara (DPS).* Jika belum ada, mendaftarlah secara online atau menghubungi Panitia Pemilihan Luar Negeri (PPLN)* Jika sudah ada, lakukan pendaftaran ulang dengan mengirimkan data alamat, no telepon, no paspor dan email terbaru secara online atau dengan menghubungi Panitia Pemilihan Luar Negeri (PPLN)Apakah anda berhak memilih?Jika anda sudah berumur 17 tahun pada hari Kamis, 9 April, 2009, atau sudah/pernah kawin, maka anda berhak untuk memilih dalam Pemilihan Umum 2009.Pastikan bahwa hak pilih anda tidak hilang dengan:* Mengisi formulir pendataan ulang secara online* Memastikan bahwa nama anda tercantum dalam daftar pemilih sementara* Meng-update data andaTerima kasih atas perhatiannya.Salam PemiluPPLN Selandia Barud/a KBRI WellingtonAlamat pos:PO Box 3543, Wellington 6140Alamat fisik:70 Glen Road, Kelburn, Wellington 6012Telepon:64-4-475 8697/98/99Fax:64-4-475 9374Email:info@pemilu-nz.orgWebsite:www.pemilu-nz.orgBaca pembentukan PPLN Selbar >>>Baca kegiatan PPLN Selbar >>>Baca anggaran PPLN Selbar >>>(/jml)

Posted on: 11 August 2008 | 11:22 pm

Australia Invades New Zealand?

What's the underlying reason and purpose of this ad? I don't know. Bledisloe Cup maybe.

Posted on: 20 July 2008 | 4:02 am

kez

Posted on: 16 July 2008 | 6:38 am

Indonesia tumbuh kencang?

picture's source >>>Dari sisi luar negeri dan pasar modal, jangan lewatkan siaran kampanye Investasi di Indonesia di CNBC tanggal 14 Juli 08 waktu NZ via SkyTV. Lihat jadwal >>>source >>>CNBC and the Investment Coordinating Board (ICB) in Indonesia, announced a sponsorship of a special week of Squawk Box on the Road: Indonesia.This campaign will feature CNBC’s signature show, Squawk Box, broadcasting live from Jakarta and Bali for the week of July 14, 2008. The program sponsorship will be complemented with a 2 month on-air advertising campaign.CNBC links (updated):Squawk on the Road: IndonesiaAll this week, CNBC Asia's Squawk Box goes on the road in Indonesia. We'll be looking at issues including trade and investment, energy, and tourism. And we'll also be talking to the country's movers and shakers, asking them their take on where Indonesia is going and how it will get there.Sovereignty of Indonesia's Economy End of Fuel Hikes in Indonesia IMF's View of Indonesia's Economy Tackling Indonesia's Price Rises Saya tertarik untuk mengobservasi apakah ada volatilitas indeks IHSG yang signifikan sebelum dan sesudah coverage dari CNBC itu dan apakah volatilitas tersebut bisa dikategorikan noise atau signal. Masalahnya, IDX belum banyak dimasuki global emerging fund portfolio karena mungkin lebih banyak noise daripada signal.Dari sisi domestik dan pasar hutang, harga naik malah dijadikan kesempatan untuk peningkatan usaha tersebut. Kalau supply naik akhirnya toh harga turun juga, pendapatan pada akhirnya akan turun. Kalau suku bunga naik, pengembalian hutang modal kerja tentunya akan meningkat juga, biaya modal akan naik. Kalau pendapatan turun, biaya modal naik, perusahaan bisa merugi. Kalau tingkat kerugian sampai mengganggu arus kas, tentunya hutang modal kerja tidak bisa dikembalikan full atau paling tidak tepat waktu.Kredit Bank Tumbuh KencangBI Rate Naik Menjadi 8,75 PersenJumat, 4 Juli 2008 | 00:57 WIBsumber: kompas >>>Di tengah tren kenaikan suku bunga, lonjakan harga komoditas, dan ketidakpastian pasar keuangan global, pertumbuhan kredit perbankan nasional justru bertambah kencang. Pertumbuhan kredit terutama dipicu oleh kebutuhan modal kerja yang meningkat di sektor pertambangan dan perkebunan.............Pertumbuhan kredit tersebut tercatat sebagai yang tercepat sejak masa krisis. Penyaluran kredit yang kencang itu justru terjadi di tengah tren kenaikan suku bunga dan lonjakan inflasi yang sejatinya merupakan faktor negatif bagi pertumbuhan kredit............Menurut dia, besarnya kucuran kredit saat ini dominan dipicu oleh maraknya kegiatan usaha di sektor-sektor berbasis sumber daya alam, seperti pertambangan dan minyak sawit (CPO) serta proyek infrastruktur yang mendapat jaminan pemerintah.Usaha pertambangan, energi, dan pertanian marak karena harga produknya tengah meroket. Selain itu, sektor usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah juga tumbuh kencang dipicu oleh adanya program kredit usaha rakyat yang mendapatkan jaminan pemerintah.

Posted on: 4 July 2008 | 6:18 pm

finally, the pregnant man has given birth

if you have placed your bet on this before, i tell you the pregnant man has given birth to a baby girl...from sky news >>>picture file from times online >>>Thomas Beatie, who lives as a male after undergoing surgery and hormone treatment, gave birth at a hospital in Oregon on June 29, according to People magazine.Both he and the baby are said to be "healthy and doing well"............."The only thing different about me is that I can't breast-feed my baby. But a lot of mothers don't," People quoted Beatie as saying.He has had his breasts surgically removed.He said that the baby was not delivered by Caesarean section, but no other details about the birth have been confirmed.............

Posted on: 4 July 2008 | 5:14 am

some good memories

with the Panggabeans and the Achmadiswith the Rahmadis, the Saragihs and the Kurniawanswith Richard, Alison, Kezia and Mumwith Atholl, Prof Leigh and Dawnwith Kezia and Nina

Posted on: 2 July 2008 | 3:12 pm

test vodcast St John

from http://stjohnsinthecity.blogspot.com/

Posted on: 15 June 2008 | 1:57 am

Rugby at Westpac Stadium

I've never watched rugby live at the stadium before. But lucky me that ING (NZ) just gave me a chance to watch rugby at Westpac Stadium from its corporate box. So excited...Aaron, a good guy (senior manager) from ING (wearing a black long sleeve in the photo below) invited me as a rep from Lyfords. The invitation was actually for Kirsty, but she couldn't come so I didn't waste the opportunity. Drink (wine, beer etc) and dinner (lamb stew I think) were provided before the game. Hmmm... nice. Thanks a lot, Aaron.The ING corporate box consists of two parts: the lounge inside (with lounge set, dining table, bar, and of course a private toilet) and the 3-row balcony outside. The photos below were taken from outside.The game was such an easy game for Hurricanes since Lions is apparently underdog.Short clip

Posted on: 3 May 2008 | 8:42 am

Happy Birthday to Me

This morning just before going to work I was quite surprise finding that Nina and Kezia prepared a little celebration for my birthday. Thanks love.Another suprise was when they both suddenly came up to the office. Kirsty actually had phoned Nina the day before asking her to come to the office around morning tea time as Alison and Richard had prepared a little party and a cake. Thanks for everything Alison, Richard and Kirsty.I'm officially old, but relatively young. Relax..."Pakatuan wo Pakalowiren to me"

Posted on: 1 May 2008 | 5:10 am

CAPM return and cumulative data matter

This story began when I wrote about benchmark issue in CAPM. Then, it continued with an Excel model for optimisation of shares or funds portfolio. The main problem defined in the model is to select shares and find the optimised asset allocation in a portfolio with three scenarios:1. Assumed CAPM can't be applied and historical data is important therefore historical mean (average) return and standard deviation are used to simulate random return normal distribution and calculate Variance Covariance matrix.2. Assumed CAPM can't be applied and cumulative data is important therefore projected mean (average) return and standard deviation are used to simulate random return normal distribution and calculate Variance Covariance matrix.3. Assume CAPM can be applied and cumulative data is important therefore projected CAPM return and standard deviation are used to simulate random return normal distribution and calculate Variance Covariance matrix.Starting by processing 13 NZ shares in the optimisation model with the three scenarios then applying the result of the share selection and the asset allocation into three passive portofolios, after one month holding period I found the return as follows:Scenario 1 = -8.98%Scenario 2 = -2.86%Scenario 3 = +6.06%I will update after 12 months.

Posted on: 4 April 2008 | 4:50 pm

Easter break day 2: Christchurch

Christchurch name is taken from the Christ Church of the University of Oxford, which the building and rooms have been used for the Harry Porter movie set. It's such a religious name for a city. Does it represent the spirit of the city? the people?After having breakfast at the motel, we started the day around 9 am headed to Christchurch Botanic Gardens. We parked our car at Armagh St car park. It's free admission. We spent an hour walking around the garden and taking photos. It's kind of quiet garden (early morning of course) with big trees and beautiful rose garden. Kezia picked up a flower that she is not supposed to do that in a city garden.From Botanic Gardens, we continued to Antartic Centre, which is located next to the Airport. We paid $60 for 2 adults and Kezia is free. The most interesting experience was the little blue penguin watch. Kezia really enjoyed it as she was so close enough with the penguins unintendedly stepping out to the penguin area. Then, the chilling -5 degrees Celcius room and the experience of the Antartic Storm when the temperatur was reduced to -18! I also spent a moment looking at the Scott Base photos.We left Antartic Centre going back to motel for having a quick lunch. After lunch, we went to the Cathedral Square. We parked our car somewhere on Worcester St CBD area. We found that the public toilet is a two level building with a sliding door at the entrance! We went into the Cathedral and coming to the prayer spot where Nina and Kezia were praying together. We then took the tram circling the city square. Kezia's stroller is put just in front of the tram. Around 3 pm, we stopped by a cafe inside the Cathedral Junction to have a Flat White and a Hot Chocolate. Nina bought some souvenirs at the shop next to the cafe. It's a good spot to take photos with a passing tram in the background.Last place we visited was the Christchurch Gondola. We paid $60 for 2 adults including the tram ride before. The gondola ride is exactly the same with one in Rotorua so I wasn't really excited. Except for Kezia. At the top almost 500m above sea level, we could see the Christchurch City and Lyttleton Harbour and the Pacific Ocean. Because it's cloudy we couldn't see the Southern Alps.The next day, Easter Sunday, we checked out around 5 am. I parked the car and returned the car key at the Avis counter. We flew back to Wellington with 7.15 flight.Arriving at Wellington airport, we went to the long term car park using a free shuttle. We're back to our "blue car" as Kezia saying and "no more white car". We went straightaway to the market for Nina's shopping and then church for Easter Sunday service. In the afternoon, we have an Easter Dinner with Indonesians of our church.HAPPY EASTER

Posted on: 24 March 2008 | 3:08 am

Easter break day 1: Mt Cook

We had a two-day break going to South Island, specifically to Mt Cook and Christchurch. In the midst of NZ recession outlook, we still however continued with our plan to have a costly holiday. Do we have to avoid that? No. We need to live our life to the full, yet with a help from one important economic tool, i.e., saving. Our next holiday should be Christmas considering that we need to save some money again after spending quite much on this Easter Holiday.We started from home around 5 am on Good Friday to Wellington Airport and parked our car at the long term car park. It costs $41 for 2 nights. We booked the flight two months ago, so we could get the cheapest available fare from Air NZ. Our flight to Christchurch boarded on 6.30 am. The flying time from Wellington to Christchurch is normally 45 minutes. Kezia really enjoyed the flight.Arriving at Christchurch Airport around 7.30 am, I then went to Avis Rental Cars counter to pick up the car key reserved and sign some papers. The base rental fee for 2 days is $110 ($55/day) plus airport fee $30. For the sake of "no-hassle trip", I also added a GPS costing $20 for 2 days ($10/day). Putting the GPS into practice, I could save lots of time wondering where to go using a map, particularly in the urban area. Bear in mind, I've never been in South Island or Christchurch before even after 8 years living in NZ.Finding the car is a small nice new car (2007), we became overwhelmed since our car is 12 years older. I loaded all of our stuff in to the car including Kezia's carseat and stroller. Kezia seemed happy as she thought the white car was our new car. After setting the GPS, we drove to the City Worcester Motel to check-in. The motel is located in the city centre area and the rate is quite cheap compared to the other motels, costing $200 for 2 nights. It's clean but with old furniture. I met some Japanese and Dutch tourists staying next door and downstair.After getting the room key, we straightaway drove to Lake Pukaki. I set the GPS to Lake Pukaki Visitor Centre. It's a 4 hours drive departing around 9 am and arriving at Pukaki around 13 pm. We then had our lunch there. Nina prepared nasi goreng and tuna croissant for our lunch. We spent time enjoying the scenery and taking photos.We then decided to drive to Mt Cook village as it's not really part of the plan. But Alison, my boss, suggested me to visit Mt Cook because it's worth coming by after driving a long way from Christchurch. The route is a dead end road, easy drive as not so much traffic, the best scenic drive in NZ and it's only 30 minutes from Pukaki. We enjoyed the scenery of the green Lake Pukaki on the right, Ben Ohau Range on the left and The Southern Alps on the front. It's an amazing beautiful scene. Thanks Ally. A bit tear in my eyes for someone who had been waiting for 8 years to enjoy the beauty of South Island. Next tear would be Queenstown! (I have the plan in my mind and pocket)After walking around the Mt Cook village and taking photos, we realised that The Church of Good Shepperd, Lake Tekapo, is our main plan. Then, we drove back to Lake Tekapo as we actually just passed through it on the way to Pukaki. The view from the church is amazing. The church has a glass window behind the altar so that the congregation can enjoy the scenery while having the service. We had a big while having a good time taking photos and lying down on the grass enjoying the scenery of the lake, Southern Alps and Two Thumb Range.We left Lake Tekapo around 6 pm headed back to Christchurch. The next day we had our Christchurch time. Good Friday is good, thank be to God for the safe flight and drive.

Posted on: 23 March 2008 | 11:33 pm

Top 10 Indonesian Managed Funds (Reksa Dana)

"Reksa Dana or Reksadana" is an Indonesian term for managed funds. The total number of managed funds in Indonesia is 475. It's amazing! And, the highest real return is around 70%!! Seeing the high return of Indonesia market, who cares about standard deviation... Fixed Income 168 Shares 58 Mixed 111 Money market 32 Protected 103 Index 1 Listed 2 TOTAL 475 TOP Performers as of 29 March 2008 (in %) SHARES funds (Rp) 30 days 1 year 1 year real Makinta Mantap 3.713,76 -16.76 66.27 62.19 Fortis Ekuitas 9.005,18 -12.42 57.97 51.83 Pratama Saham 2.118,94 -13.2 52.08 50.57 Fortis Infrastruktur Plus 1.557,37 -11.64 54.2 49.29 Optima Saham 1.578,07 -8.16 53.57 48.3 Bahana Dana Prima 8.163,82 -12.05 51.93 47.44 Schroder Dana Istimewa 2.677,91 -8.53 46.77 46.04 Danareksa Mawar 4.715,90 -11.8 47.52 45.33 Mandiri Investa Atraktif 2.757,80 -13.65 46.86 45.21 Reksa Dana Dana Ekuitas Prima 2.320,73 -11.58 53.53 43.7 MIXED funds (Rp) 30 days 1 year 1 year real Prospera Balance 2.788,39 -11.37 59.5 53.25 Bahana Dana Infrastruktur 4.997,78 -11.91 56.33 51.71 Fortis Pesona 11.610,89 -11.24 50.22 46.87 TRIM Syariah Berimbang 1.441,77 -9.95 43.37 43.37 Mandiri Investa Syariah Berimbang 2.136,52 -4.25 44.52 41.65 Reksadana Mega Dana Syariah 1.533,92 -6.92 42.78 39.95 Star Balanced 1.778,10 -6.06 42.03 39.9 Danareksa Anggrek Fleksibel 1.895,27 -8.04 44.53 39.62 Schroder Dana Prestasi 12.447,40 -10.69 41.64 38.49 Mega Dana Campuran 1.538,57 -8.55 40.61 37.15

Posted on: 14 March 2008 | 1:06 am

Which Market do you prefer?

"IHSG" is the Jakarta Market. Isn't it way too high? The mean and also the stdev."NZXall" is the the good one I think. It has a considerably high mean and low stdev.

Posted on: 13 March 2008 | 8:23 pm

Weekend di Taupo

Tulisan ini dikutip dari Keziawatch... ditulis oleh Nina.Diajak sama keluarga Panggabean ke taupo yang kebetulan dapet jatah nempatin holiday home kantornya om Arthur. Gak cuma kita sekeluarga aja yang diajak, tapi keluarga Achmadi juga diajak. Jadilah 3 keluarga menghabiskan weekend sama-sama, makan minum sama-sama, barbeque sama-sama, gila juga sama-sama deh. ;p Di Taupo selama 3 hari 2 malam, kita sempet ke Huka Falls dan The Honey hive, maksudnya sih nyoba madu gratis yang akhirnya gak nyoba madunya sama sekali tapi mommy & daddy malah nyobain Chocolate Mints dan Butterscotch-nya berkali-kali. Hahaha...suka atau doyan ? Abis enak rasanya seperti Baileys...finally Daddy beli butterscotch buat malamnya sambil barbeque !!!Cerita lainnya bisa diliat di blognya Tante Imelda dan blognya Tante Erika.Ini beberapa photonya yang ada (baik dari cameranya tante erika atau dari camera kita sendiri) :The Liandos, The Panggabeans, The Achmadis... Mommy, daddy & kezia di tepi Huka Falls...Kezia and Will.... Will, kezia and Nickolas di rumah lebah.....;p Gak lupa bawa teleskop, hobby baru mommy & daddy....*_^ Sebelum pulang sempet kabur duluan dari 2 keluarga yang lain tuk nikmatin Lake Taupo....dan photo-photo dong ;DMampir di Chateau Tongariro, Whakapapa tuk lunch...hmmm dah lama juga nih kita gak ke whakapapa, jadi kangen. Liat deh bagaimana borjunya makanan kita, setimpal dengan harganya. huahahaha.... Photo dulu di depan Chateau, sebelum lanjutin perjalanan....Daddy sempet2nya photo sebelum nyetir lanjutin perjalanan.... Mampir ke Whanganui yang ternyata karena ada whanganui river-nya menjadikan mirip sekali dengan Hamilton (kota kesayangan kita) dengan Waikato river-nya....cuma kalo hamilton kota jauh lebih besar kali yee.... Pulang deh kerumah masing-masing....thanks a lot ya om Arthur udah ngajak kami walaupun cuaca kurang mendukung karena hujan dan adanya Triathlon tapi tidak mengurangi kebersamaan dan kekompakkan kita. Thanks guys for the lovely time....love you all ;D

Posted on: 9 March 2008 | 11:59 pm

US Recessions and the MSCI World Index

Recent market talks are around the fears of recession in the US. Although finance is often considered as sort of an exact science, it however cannot avoid the influence of the state of anxiousness by market players and investors. That is why a behavioral finance matters and needs to be neutralised by showing the real facts in the financial markets and a good sense to answer if a US recession is really going to bring down the entire world financial market in the long term.Periods of US recession and the definitionThe state of US recession period is officially announced by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Since 1970 there have been 5 states of recession in the US, as follows :• November 1973 to March 1975• January 1980 to July 1980• July 1981 to November 1982• July 1990 to March 1991• March 2001 to November 2001The NBER defines that“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.”The informal recession definition is a decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more consecutive quarters.Relationship between recession and stock market declineThere is a confusing logic in relationship between recession and stock market decline: does a recession cause a bearish market or the other way around? The exact answer is that the recession comes first and the bearish market after. In a recession, analysts would see the value of companies is declining therefore the stock prices may fall. However, some classic strategy suggests that investment in the consumables sector may be a recession-proof investment since people still buy those products, recession or not.If the recession comes first and the bearish market after, how can we explain the states of US recession in July 1990 to March 1991 that came 3 years after the 87 crash? Many analysts argue that the Crash was mainly caused by a programmed trading system and psychology factor that beyond the economic factor of an exact finance. The “quants” (quantitative traders) who developed a computerised trading system that automatically created a sequence of selling positions might had been to blame, or it could had been the investors who were psychology weak and then fell into selling positions.How strong is US recession influence on global market?Another question to answer: does US recession strongly influence the global financial market, particularly Australia and NZ markets? It may not be. Asian countries like Japan, China, South Korea and others have been the dominant trading partners for Australia and therefore NZ for the last decade competing trading flows with the US. This recent economic decoupling theory may explain how US recession may be absorbed by growth in the competing countries (Asia) as maintaining trading flows with the third trading counterparts (Australia/NZ).Some simple examples: the US recession may not affect New Zealanders to stop buying stuff from the Warehouse stores, but Americans to visit their Walmart stores. New Zealanders are not going to disconnect their Telecom line at home because of the US recession.The recent subprime trouble in the US economy may be likely to influence ASX and NZX in terms of market psychology rather than concluding a good excuse and common sense that Australian and NZ companies should decline in value because of it. The fundamental assessment of companies’ value seems to be flawed in the short term.Unfortunately, the recent January big drop in Asian and European markets is however breaking the belief of the decoupling theory. Investors and market players are then more aware of the true impact of US recession on the global financial market.Market randomness over recession periodIt seems some finance and economics theories try to explain and justify the prediction of world’s share market trend in the future. However, contradictions, unpleasant facts and non-economic factors may affect one’s prediction and there is only one underlying theory that can explain all this, i.e. randomness and stochastic.Therefore, it is important to show some historical fact to see the ex post impact of US recession to the world financial market by taking a closer look at the historical data of popular benchmark of the world financial market, the MSCI World Index. The goal is to conclude that randomness in the share markets may be likely to drive the prices up in the long term regardless recession.The conclusion of this can be easily understood by paying attention to the following chart, which show the period of US recession and the MSCI World Index. The fact is, in the time frames of 10-15 years the US recessions seems to have been driving the ex post movement of the world share market up. Therefore, recession is not a measure of uncertainty in stock market. Or, is it just because the market randomness factor always win over the recession factor?1977 to 1987: two recessions and 280% returnA decade before the stock market crash of 1988, and despite the two recession periods were defined in 1980 and 1982, the MSCI had been dramatically increased by 280% return.1987 to 1997: one recession and 135% returnAfter all, the MSCI index still increased by 135% despite the 1991 US recession was occurred.1997 to 2007: one recession and 92% returnRegardless the Technology Crash 2000-2002 and the “War on Terror”, and despite the 2002 US recession, the MSCI index still increased by 92%.The best example of the MSCI Index Fund managed in NZ is AMP Investments' World Index Fund (WiNZ)Fund Fact SheetInvestment StatementProspectus

Posted on: 24 February 2008 | 2:29 am

Shaolin Monk Kungfu

This group of monks is well-known as a kind of resistance for Chinese rulers in the past. Shaolin Monk Kungfu may have been considered as the origins of all martial-arts in China, Japan, Korea and South East Asia. A group of monk warriors with good martial-art skills may not be such an effective and efficient resistance these days. Why not start to teach them how to use pistol, machine gun, grenade launcher, anti-tank rifle, etc...? No! Peace man, Buddha bless you.I took these pictures from their performance at Te Papa last week.

Posted on: 22 February 2008 | 12:00 am

The Parables of Investment

From an interesting paper:The parables, premium puzzles, and the CAPMby Hong-Jen Lin and David C. VanderLinden(download)image: One Year Bible BlogRate of return, risk free deposit, and equity premiumIn Matthew 25: 14-30 (the Parable of the Talents), a master has given his three servants five talents, two talents and one talent of money, respectively. The first earns five more talents, the second earns two more talents, and the third earns nothing since he played it safe and buried all the money in the ground. The master commends the first and the second ‘‘Well done, good and faithful servants’’ (verses 21 and 25) but excoriates the third as a ‘‘wicked, lazy servant’’ (v. 26).A key principle to this parable is risk-taking. The first two servants were willing to place at risk the endowment given to them, but the third servant was ‘‘afraid.’’ As interpreted by most commentators, the parable is an exhortation to take risks in using one’s gifts for the kingdom of God. Jesus indicates a reward for those willing to take risk, and punishment for the one who was too fearful (risk-averse).Perhaps, we can also infer how the master evaluates performance of the investments by three servants. Why did the first and second servants receive the same praise and rewards? Both took risk and, while the absolute value of income differed, they both earned the same rate of return. In this case (but not for the Parable of the Ten Minas), the master gave them the same rewards. Proverbs 3:14 (in the Old Testament) also alludes to return: ‘‘for she (wisdom) is more profitable than silver and yields better returns than gold.’’ The concept of return appears in both the Old Testament and the New Testament.Regarding the third servant, the master criticized, ‘‘you should have put my money on deposit with the bankers, so that I would have received it back with interest’’ (v. 27). Given the comment, we can surmise that the risk-free deposit market existed in Jesus’ era. The third servant is despised because he has earned zero return in investment, under the riskfree rate. Therefore, one can interpret the verse to mean that the master measures performance not just based on the rate of return but on the return rate in excess of the risk-free interest rate. This conforms to the formula of the Sharpe-Lintner CAPM:ri – rf = Bi ( rm – rf )where ri is the rate of return for asset i, rf is the risk-free deposit interest rate, and rm is the market return. Bi denotes the systematic risk. Both sides of equation are returns in excess of the risk-free deposit rate. In other words, the measurement of performance of investments is based on the rate of return in excess of the risk-free deposit rate.A similar concept is found in the Parable of the Ten Minas (Luke 19: 11-23). However, in this parable, each servant is given one mina. The first servant invests it and returns ten minas to his master; the second invest the mina to return five minas; a third servant hides his mina in the ground because he is ‘‘afraid.’’ In the Parable of Ten Minas, the master rewarded the faithful servants by giving them authorities to rule cities; the first over ten cities, the second over five. That is, the ‘‘payoff’’ in the Parable of Ten Minas is much more than that in the Parable of Talents (as is the return), but it is proportional to the returns of each servant. Again, the criticism of the third servant’s inaction is still sharp.The scripture seems to encourage investors to earn as much as possible. The master criticized the third servant because of his laziness. The laziness is simply caused by his fear of taking risk (v. 25). Therefore, according to the Parable of Talents, Christians are motivated to invest and accumulate wealth to glorify God. It seems that Jesus appreciates people who dare to take risk and grasp profitable opportunities. This is consistent with Solomon’s exhortation to enter into risky trade and ‘‘cast your bread upon the waters, for after many days you will find it again’’ (Ecclesiastes 11: 1). Consistent with Weber’s propositions, it may be that the financial markets have been influenced at least indirectly by these principles. That is, religious teachings can change people’s mindset and then motivate them to invest and to fully utilize the financial resources they have. As a result, financial markets are formed, which increases general wealth. The prosperity of financial markets further inspires researchers in forming financial theories such as the CAPM. A possible relationship among the biblical teachings, financial markets, and financial theories is illustrated in Figure 1.Avariant of the CAPM is the consumption CAPM, in which investors hold wealth to allow consumption. Thus, the expected return on an asset should be related to how the asset’s returns vary with consumption. Mehra and Prescott (1985) found that the historical equity risk premium (the rate of return on stocks over and above the return on a risk-free rate) was too high for ‘‘reasonable’’ levels of risk aversion. Termed the ‘‘equity premium puzzle,’’ this finding has stirred numerous unsuccessful attempts to explain the puzzle. One possibility is that investors have diverse preferences or beliefs (rather than those of a representative individual as usually assumed). In both the Parable of the Talents and the Ten Minas, one investor either was too risk-averse to invest or had different payoff expectations such that he was unwilling to invest. Perhaps these parables offer an avenue of explanation for the equity premium puzzle.According to Benartzi and Thaler (1995), when investors are myopic-loss-averse, the return on equity must be large enough to attract them to buy stocks. We can also observe from the Parable of Talents that the third servant is myopic-loss-averse. In other words, the third servant ignores upcoming rewards he might earn. His fear of loss is much more than the joy of gain. Therefore, the equity premium is a must to draw investors like him to invest in risky assets.One final note on equities is in order. Because the master strongly motivates the servants to invest by authorizing them to rule over cities (i.e. have ownership of productive assets), this kind of teaching could be viewed as encouraging Christian investors to hold equities, as the light shed by Weber (1930).In the field of corporate finance, equity holders may pass up profitable (i.e. positive net present value) investments when debt holders may get most of the benefits of the projects. That is, equity holders may tend to under invest when they realize that their gains in the new projects are limited (see Grinblatt and Titman, 2002, p. 563). In the Parable of Talents, similarly, the third servant may think that the master will get most of benefits so he is reluctant to invest. Actually, he really under invests: invests into the ground!To sum up, conceivably these parables could help to explain the equity premium puzzle in asset pricing and the under investment problem in corporate finance. Teachings based on the parables may shape the behavior of people especially when these biblical teachings have already become a part of the system in a country.

Posted on: 17 February 2008 | 7:36 pm

Dulu, saya ingin jadi Akademisi

Crickey!Ternyata di database katalog website perpustakaan Universitas Atma Jaya www.atmalib.com ditemukan hasil tulisan saya.Detail tulisan ini bisa dilihat di sini.Analisis Deskriminan Sebagai Metode Alternatif dalam Menilai Kinerja Keuangan PerusahaanOleh: Djuanda, Gustian ; Liando, Jeffry MerrilJenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah nasional - terakreditasi DIKTIDalam koleksi: Widya: Majalah Ilmiah vol. XVI no. 166 (1999), page 40.Topik: analisis deskriminan; kinerja keuangan>>> Download full text >>>Sebenarnya judul aslinya "Analisis Diskriminan" bukan "Deskriminan", mungkin yang benar memang "deskriminan". Analisis Deskriminan (Discriminant Analysis) adalah metode pertama dan utama yang menarik perhatian saya saat itu.Hal ini mengingatkan bagaimana saya sebenarnya ingin menjadi seorang Akademisi saat itu. Waktu itu masih ada Kopertis dan Majalah Widya dimiliki Kopertis, jadi menulis di situ akan menambah poin tersendiri untuk Akademisi swasta. Gustian Djuanda adalah dosen pembimbing saya, orangnya baik, rendah hati dan sangat pintar. Dia ahli pajak dan pernah berjuang di Mahkamah Konstitusi untuk keberatannya terhadap UU Pajak. Saya sempat diberikan kesempatan menjadi asisten dan berbicara di depan kelasnya saat itu.Masa itu tahun 98-99, sebelum saya bekerja di salah satu pabrik di Balaraja sebagai Akuntan Manajemen. Waktu berjalan, begitu banyak jalan yang telah saya lalui sampai akhirnya sekarang saya menetap di NZ.

Posted on: 12 February 2008 | 11:52 pm

My new baby: Silver Fern

Just a little gardening as today is a Wellington holiday.Silver Fern (Cyathea Dealbata)

Posted on: 20 January 2008 | 8:23 pm